Menu | Explaining level changesMichael Malley v Hywel Smith (Sun 11 Oct 2020)Match won by Michael Malley. Result: 6-1.Starting level for Michael Malley: 1,776, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Hywel Smith: 2,253, level confidence: 57%. Hywel Smith to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Michael Malley. Michael Malley won 86% of the points. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Malley actually played at a level of 2,847 and Hywel Smith at a level of 1,406. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 60% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 52% and 52% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 40% and 40% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Malley changes to +33% and Hywel Smith changes to -40%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Malley becomes +13.5% and for Hywel Smith becomes -15%. Given Hywel Smith's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.9% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Michael Malley is +6.7% and for Hywel Smith is -6.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Hywel Smith is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Malley: 84%, Hywel Smith: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Malley: 52%, Hywel Smith: 47%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Michael Malley: 1,893, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Hywel Smith: 2,143, level confidence: 47%. Notes
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