Menu | Explaining level changesDenes Timar v Hywel Smith (Sun 25 Oct 2020)Match won by Denes Timar. Result: 6-1.Starting level for Denes Timar: 2,491, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Hywel Smith: 2,143, level confidence: 45%. Denes Timar to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Hywel Smith. Denes Timar won 86% of the points. Denes Timar has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 2906. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Denes Timar actually played at a level of 3,551 and Hywel Smith at a level of 1,754. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Denes Timar changes to +11% and Hywel Smith changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Denes Timar becomes +4.7% and for Hywel Smith becomes -6.6%. Given Denes Timar's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Given Hywel Smith's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Denes Timar is +2% and for Hywel Smith is -3.1%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Denes Timar is +19%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Denes Timar: 78%, Hywel Smith: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Denes Timar: 59%, Hywel Smith: 51%. A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Denes Timar: 2,968, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Hywel Smith: 2,105, level confidence: 51%. Notes
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