Menu | Explaining level changesRhys Thomas v David Duffett (Mon 19 Apr 2021)Match won by Rhys Thomas. Result: 6-1.Starting level for Rhys Thomas: 2,563, level confidence: 31%. Starting level for David Duffett: 2,546, level confidence: 41%. Rhys Thomas to win as he is currently playing 1% better than David Duffett. Rhys Thomas won 86% of the points. Rhys Thomas has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 3092. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rhys Thomas actually played at a level of 3,993 and David Duffett at a level of 1,972. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rhys Thomas changes to +21% and David Duffett changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rhys Thomas becomes +7.6% and for David Duffett becomes -6.2%. Given Rhys Thomas's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change. Given David Duffett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Rhys Thomas is +3.2% and for David Duffett is -2.7%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Rhys Thomas is +24%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rhys Thomas: 55%, David Duffett: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rhys Thomas: 39%, David Duffett: 45%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rhys Thomas: 3,194, level confidence: 39%. Final level for David Duffett: 2,485, level confidence: 45%. Notes
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