Menu | Explaining level changesNick Cook v Fritz Feltus (Sun 02 May 2021)Match won by Nick Cook. Result: 6-1.Starting level for Nick Cook: 1,767, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Fritz Feltus: 2,471, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Fritz Feltus to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Nick Cook. Nick Cook won 86% of the points. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Cook actually played at a level of 2,973 and Fritz Feltus at a level of 1,468. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 68% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 55% and 55% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Cook changes to +43% and Fritz Feltus changes to -40%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Cook becomes +16.7% and for Fritz Feltus becomes -14%. Given Fritz Feltus's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Nick Cook is +8.4% and for Fritz Feltus is -6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Fritz Feltus is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Cook: 83%, Fritz Feltus: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Cook: 49%, Fritz Feltus: 50%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick Cook: 1,920, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Fritz Feltus: 2,359, level confidence: 50%. Notes
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