Menu | Explaining level changesAdam Pierce v Mark Richardson (Thu 10 Jun 2021)Match won by Adam Pierce. Result: 6-4.Starting level for Adam Pierce: 1,640, level confidence: 46%. Starting level for Mark Richardson: 2,261, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Mark Richardson to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Adam Pierce. Adam Pierce won 60% of the points. Adam Pierce has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 2144. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Pierce actually played at a level of 2,388 and Mark Richardson at a level of 2,030. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 8.9% and 8.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Pierce changes to +8.9% and Mark Richardson changes to -4.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Pierce becomes +4.4% and for Mark Richardson becomes -2.9%. Given Adam Pierce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.8% has been applied to his level change. Given Mark Richardson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Adam Pierce is +2.1% and for Mark Richardson is -1.4%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Adam Pierce is +34%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Pierce: 67%, Mark Richardson: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Pierce: 53%, Mark Richardson: 71%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam Pierce: 2,199, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Mark Richardson: 2,228, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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