Menu | Explaining level changesDaphne Luke v Mark Richardson (Sat 08 Jan 2022)Match won by Daphne Luke. Result: 6-5.Starting level for Daphne Luke: 1,451, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Mark Richardson: 2,110, level confidence: 68%. Mark Richardson to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Daphne Luke. Daphne Luke won 55% of the points. Daphne Luke has played significantly better in this match than her level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get her level right more quickly. As a result, her pre-match level has been increased to 1592. The remaining calculations use this as her level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daphne Luke actually played at a level of 1,907 and Mark Richardson at a level of 1,761. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daphne Luke changes to +14% and Mark Richardson changes to -12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daphne Luke becomes +6.7% and for Mark Richardson becomes -5.5%. Given Mark Richardson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Daphne Luke is +3.4% and for Mark Richardson is -2.6%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Daphne Luke is +13%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daphne Luke: 77%, Mark Richardson: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daphne Luke: 62%, Mark Richardson: 66%. A final adjustment of -4.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Daphne Luke: 1,510, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Mark Richardson: 2,048, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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