Menu | Explaining level changesSimon Moore v Jake Stephenson (Sun 24 Apr 2022)Match won by Jake Stephenson. Result: 3-6.Starting level for Simon Moore: 2,447, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Jake Stephenson: 930, level confidence: 69%. Simon Moore to win as he is currently playing 163% better than Jake Stephenson. Jake Stephenson won 67% of the points. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jake Stephenson actually played at a level of 1,736 and Simon Moore at a level of 1,311. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 87% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 47% and 47% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 37% and 37% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jake Stephenson changes to +5.3% and Simon Moore changes to -37%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jake Stephenson becomes +4.2% and for Simon Moore becomes -13%. Given Simon Moore's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.6% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Jake Stephenson is +2.1% and for Simon Moore is -5.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Moore is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jake Stephenson: 83%, Simon Moore: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jake Stephenson: 44%, Simon Moore: 17%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Simon Moore: 2,313, level confidence: 17%. Final level for Jake Stephenson: 949, level confidence: 44%. Notes
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