Alexandros Kefallonitis v Nathan Day (Sun 07 Aug 2022)
Match won by Nathan Day. Result: 4-6.
Starting level for
Alexandros Kefallonitis:
1,509, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nathan Day:
2,905, level confidence: 44%.
Nathan Day to win as he is currently playing
93% better than Alexandros Kefallonitis.
Nathan Day won 60% of the points.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nathan Day was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,164 and 2,905 without affecting his level.
As Nathan Day has played below his allowed range at 1,959, his level reduction is 10.4% before damping. On the assumption that Nathan Day would normally have been playing at level 2,582 (based on typical behaviour), Alexandros Kefallonitis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.4% and 14% respectively.
As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 12% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Day changes to -6% and Alexandros Kefallonitis changes to +7.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Day becomes -3.1% and for Alexandros Kefallonitis becomes +4.3%.
Given Nathan Day's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Nathan Day is -1.3% and for Alexandros Kefallonitis is +2.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Day: 66%, Alexandros Kefallonitis: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Day: 52%, Alexandros Kefallonitis: 66%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Alexandros Kefallonitis:
1,541, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Nathan Day:
2,857, level confidence: 52%.
Notes
- This calculation is done in two main parts; first work out the adjustment needed to match the results
and then apply damping. This means that levels should always be 'about right' but the time taken
to get there or the volatility is dependent on the damping.
- A level also has 'level confidence' which drops if players haven't played for a long time or have had
enexpected results. As low confidence levels adjust more quickly than high confidence levels, it allows
these players to find their level more quickly without impacting their opponent's level too much.
- Point scores are used as well as game scores for accuracy - particularly important for 3-0 results -
though we can work with game scores only too, albeit with more damping.
- Mismatched players are allowed for - you don't have to hammer your opponent. See explanation above
if this applies to this match.
- The section on damping is where we still have some options. We have recently made a change to damp
league matches more than tournament matches and box matches even more than that. This gives added
weight to the more important matches.
- There are occasional, very small adjustments made to all players to keep the averages constant which
are not covered here.
- You don't get a bonus just for winning - if you want to go up you have to play better
than expected against your opponent.
- We have spent more than 5 years fine tuning the level calculations based on tens of thousands of match results
and a great deal of feedback from players, team captains and coaches. It's the most usable and accurate
ranking system there is in any sport, let alone squash.
- For a more complete explanation of how levels are calculated (on which this system is based) see the help file
here.
- If you have thoughts/opinions on the above or any feedback on the way levels are calculated or updated,
please contact us.
We welcome all feedback, although we are keen squash players ourselves and would pefer to be on-court than
in front of a screen so please be patient and please do try to see if your question has already been
answered on the help page. We are unable to
answer questions about hard anyone played in their match - we only get to see the results - and if your
level didn't increase as expected please make sure you've looked at the above explanation before
contacting us. If you want to go up the levels, train harder, listen to your coach and win more points.
Or just be incredibly talented!