Menu | Explaining level changesCharlie Parker v Charlie Livingston (Sun 12 Mar 2023)Match won by Charlie Parker. Result: 6-1.Starting level for Charlie Parker: 1,202, level confidence: 38%. Starting level for Charlie Livingston: 1,157, level confidence: 66%. Charlie Parker to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Charlie Livingston. Charlie Parker won 86% of the points. Charlie Parker has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 1620. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Parker actually played at a level of 1,948 and Charlie Livingston at a level of 962. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Parker changes to +13% and Charlie Livingston changes to -7.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Parker becomes +6.6% and for Charlie Livingston becomes -4.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Charlie Parker is +3.3% and for Charlie Livingston is -2.4%. As Charlie Parker has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Charlie Livingston's level has been left unchanged. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Charlie Parker is +39%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Parker: 61%, Charlie Livingston: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Parker: 44%, Charlie Livingston: 58%. A final adjustment of -13.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charlie Parker: 1,290, level confidence: 44%. Final level for Charlie Livingston: 1,157, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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