Menu | Explaining level changesBabak Arjomand v Charlie Parker (Fri 05 May 2023)Match won by Babak Arjomand. Result: 6-5.Starting level for Babak Arjomand: 3,473, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Charlie Parker: 1,462, level confidence: 56%. Babak Arjomand to win as he is currently playing 138% better than Charlie Parker. Babak Arjomand won 55% of the points. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Babak Arjomand was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,171 and 3,473 without affecting his level. As Babak Arjomand has played below his allowed range at 1,854, his level reduction is 17% before damping. On the assumption that Babak Arjomand would normally have been playing at level 2,878 (based on typical behaviour), Charlie Parker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 35%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 21% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Babak Arjomand changes to -5.3% and Charlie Parker changes to +3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Babak Arjomand becomes -2.7% and for Charlie Parker becomes +2.6%. Given Babak Arjomand's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Babak Arjomand is -1.1% and for Charlie Parker is +1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Babak Arjomand: 32%, Charlie Parker: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Babak Arjomand: 21%, Charlie Parker: 51%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Babak Arjomand: 3,408, level confidence: 21%. Final level for Charlie Parker: 1,481, level confidence: 51%. Notes
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