Menu | Explaining level changesNick Clark Windo v Babak Arjomand (Tue 09 May 2023)Match won by Babak Arjomand. Result: 5-6.Starting level for Nick Clark Windo: 1,292, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Babak Arjomand: 3,408, level confidence: 21%. Babak Arjomand to win as he is currently playing 164% better than Nick Clark Windo. Babak Arjomand won 55% of the points. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Babak Arjomand was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,934 and 3,408 without affecting his level. As Babak Arjomand has played below his allowed range at 1,645, his level reduction is 18% before damping. On the assumption that Babak Arjomand would normally have been playing at level 2,717 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Clark Windo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 39%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 23% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Babak Arjomand changes to -3% and Nick Clark Windo changes to +4.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Babak Arjomand becomes -1.9% and for Nick Clark Windo becomes +3.4%. Given Babak Arjomand's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Babak Arjomand is -0.8% and for Nick Clark Windo is +1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Babak Arjomand: 46%, Nick Clark Windo: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Babak Arjomand: 29%, Nick Clark Windo: 58%. A final adjustment of -49.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick Clark Windo: 1,295, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Babak Arjomand: 1,538, level confidence: 29%. Notes
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