Joe Louca v Jacob Shepherd (Mon 17 Jul 2023)

Match won by Joe Louca. Result: 6-5.

Starting level for Joe Louca: 742, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Jacob Shepherd: 467, level confidence: 41%.
Joe Louca to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Jacob Shepherd.

Joe Louca won 55% of the points.

As Joe Louca has played below his allowed range at 567, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Joe Louca would normally have been playing at level 697 (based on typical behaviour), Jacob Shepherd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.2% and 14% respectively.
As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 7.4% and 10.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Louca changes to -4.3% and Jacob Shepherd changes to +10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Louca becomes -3.7% and for Jacob Shepherd becomes +6.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Joe Louca is -1.8% and for Jacob Shepherd is +3.4%.

As Jacob Shepherd has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Joe Louca's level has been left unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Louca: 83%, Jacob Shepherd: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Louca: 68%, Jacob Shepherd: 53%.

Final level for Joe Louca: 742, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Jacob Shepherd: 483, level confidence: 53%.

Notes

• This calculation is done in two main parts; first work out the adjustment needed to match the results and then apply damping. This means that levels should always be 'about right' but the time taken to get there or the volatility is dependent on the damping.
• A level also has 'level confidence' which drops if players haven't played for a long time or have had enexpected results. As low confidence levels adjust more quickly than high confidence levels, it allows these players to find their level more quickly without impacting their opponent's level too much.
• Point scores are used as well as game scores for accuracy - particularly important for 3-0 results - though we can work with game scores only too, albeit with more damping.
• Mismatched players are allowed for - you don't have to hammer your opponent. See explanation above if this applies to this match.
• The section on damping is where we still have some options. We have recently made a change to damp league matches more than tournament matches and box matches even more than that. This gives added weight to the more important matches.
• There are occasional, very small adjustments made to all players to keep the averages constant which are not covered here.
• You don't get a bonus just for winning - if you want to go up you have to play better than expected against your opponent.
• We have spent more than 5 years fine tuning the level calculations based on tens of thousands of match results and a great deal of feedback from players, team captains and coaches. It's the most usable and accurate ranking system there is in any sport, let alone squash.
• For a more complete explanation of how levels are calculated (on which this system is based) see the help file here.
• If you have thoughts/opinions on the above or any feedback on the way levels are calculated or updated, please contact us. We welcome all feedback, although we are keen squash players ourselves and would pefer to be on-court than in front of a screen so please be patient and please do try to see if your question has already been answered on the help page. We are unable to answer questions about hard anyone played in their match - we only get to see the results - and if your level didn't increase as expected please make sure you've looked at the above explanation before contacting us. If you want to go up the levels, train harder, listen to your coach and win more points. Or just be incredibly talented!