Menu | Explaining level changesJulian Baggini v Olly Parry-Evans (Tue 25 Jul 2023)Match won by Olly Parry-Evans. Result: 2-6.Starting level for Julian Baggini: 1,158, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Olly Parry-Evans: 838, level confidence: 65%. Julian Baggini to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Olly Parry-Evans. Olly Parry-Evans won 75% of the points. Olly Parry-Evans has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 922. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Olly Parry-Evans actually played at a level of 1,284 and Julian Baggini at a level of 832. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 34% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Olly Parry-Evans changes to +27% and Julian Baggini changes to -19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Olly Parry-Evans becomes +14.4% and for Julian Baggini becomes -10.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Olly Parry-Evans is +7.2% and for Julian Baggini is -4.8%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Olly Parry-Evans is +18%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Olly Parry-Evans: 80%, Julian Baggini: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Olly Parry-Evans: 55%, Julian Baggini: 63%. A final adjustment of -4.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Julian Baggini: 1,103, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Olly Parry-Evans: 904, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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