Menu | Explaining level changesPatrick Fallon v Lee Hiller (Mon 27 Nov 2023)Match won by Patrick Fallon. Result: 6-1.Starting level for Patrick Fallon: 1,767, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Lee Hiller: 1,356, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Patrick Fallon to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Lee Hiller. Patrick Fallon won 86% of the points. Patrick Fallon has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 2055. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Fallon actually played at a level of 2,375 and Lee Hiller at a level of 1,173. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 9.8% and 10% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Fallon changes to +9.8% and Lee Hiller changes to -6.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Fallon becomes +4.8% and for Lee Hiller becomes -4.3%. Given Patrick Fallon's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Patrick Fallon is +2.4% and for Lee Hiller is -2.1%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Patrick Fallon is +19%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Fallon: 76%, Lee Hiller: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Fallon: 61%, Lee Hiller: 73%. A final adjustment of -7.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Patrick Fallon: 1,835, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Lee Hiller: 1,316, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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