Menu | Explaining level changesNiall Seeley v Jamie Douglas (Sun 18 Feb 2024)Match won by Niall Seeley. Result: 6-1.Starting level for Niall Seeley: 1,994, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Jamie Douglas: 1,496, level confidence: 52%. Niall Seeley to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Jamie Douglas. Niall Seeley won 86% of the points. Niall Seeley has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 2245. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Niall Seeley actually played at a level of 2,608 and Jamie Douglas at a level of 1,288. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 10.2% and 10.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Niall Seeley changes to +7.4% and Jamie Douglas changes to -10.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Niall Seeley becomes +3.8% and for Jamie Douglas becomes -5.7%. Given Niall Seeley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Niall Seeley is +1.8% and for Jamie Douglas is -2.8%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Niall Seeley is +15%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Niall Seeley: 84%, Jamie Douglas: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Niall Seeley: 68%, Jamie Douglas: 58%. A final adjustment of -6.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Niall Seeley: 2,048, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Jamie Douglas: 1,442, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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