Menu | Explaining level changesSimon Dallaire v Hamish Barclay (Sun 14 Apr 2024)Match won by Hamish Barclay. Result: 5-6.Starting level for Simon Dallaire: 1,698, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Hamish Barclay: 535, level confidence: 42%. Simon Dallaire to win as he is currently playing 217% better than Hamish Barclay. Hamish Barclay won 55% of the points. Hamish Barclay has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 659. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hamish Barclay actually played at a level of 1,101 and Simon Dallaire at a level of 1,016. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 67% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 15% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hamish Barclay changes to +30% and Simon Dallaire changes to -7.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hamish Barclay becomes +15.5% and for Simon Dallaire becomes -4.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Hamish Barclay is +7.8% and for Simon Dallaire is -2.1%. As Hamish Barclay has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Simon Dallaire's level has been left unchanged. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Hamish Barclay is +33%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hamish Barclay: 64%, Simon Dallaire: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hamish Barclay: 35%, Simon Dallaire: 42%. A final adjustment of -10.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Simon Dallaire: 1,698, level confidence: 42%. Final level for Hamish Barclay: 580, level confidence: 35%. Notes
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