Cassie Wilkins v Dave Fowler (Thu 23 May 2024)
Match won by Cassie Wilkins. Result: 6-2.
Starting level for
Cassie Wilkins:
1,001, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Dave Fowler:
1,303, level confidence: 56%.
Dave Fowler to win as he is currently playing
30% better than Cassie Wilkins.
Cassie Wilkins won 75% of the points.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cassie Wilkins actually played at a level of
1,419 and Dave Fowler at a level of
919. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 35% respectively.
As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cassie Wilkins changes to +25% and Dave Fowler changes to -28%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cassie Wilkins becomes +13.4% and for Dave Fowler becomes -13%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Cassie Wilkins is +6.7% and for Dave Fowler is -6.2%.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Dave Fowler is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cassie Wilkins: 79%, Dave Fowler: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cassie Wilkins: 56%, Dave Fowler: 53%.
Final level for Cassie Wilkins:
1,068, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Dave Fowler:
1,241, level confidence: 53%.
Notes
- This calculation is done in two main parts; first work out the adjustment needed to match the results
and then apply damping. This means that levels should always be 'about right' but the time taken
to get there or the volatility is dependent on the damping.
- A level also has 'level confidence' which drops if players haven't played for a long time or have had
enexpected results. As low confidence levels adjust more quickly than high confidence levels, it allows
these players to find their level more quickly without impacting their opponent's level too much.
- Point scores are used as well as game scores for accuracy - particularly important for 3-0 results -
though we can work with game scores only too, albeit with more damping.
- Mismatched players are allowed for - you don't have to hammer your opponent. See explanation above
if this applies to this match.
- The section on damping is where we still have some options. We have recently made a change to damp
league matches more than tournament matches and box matches even more than that. This gives added
weight to the more important matches.
- There are occasional, very small adjustments made to all players to keep the averages constant which
are not covered here.
- You don't get a bonus just for winning - if you want to go up you have to play better
than expected against your opponent.
- We have spent more than 5 years fine tuning the level calculations based on tens of thousands of match results
and a great deal of feedback from players, team captains and coaches. It's the most usable and accurate
ranking system there is in any sport, let alone squash.
- For a more complete explanation of how levels are calculated (on which this system is based) see the help file
here.
- If you have thoughts/opinions on the above or any feedback on the way levels are calculated or updated,
please contact us.
We welcome all feedback, although we are keen squash players ourselves and would pefer to be on-court than
in front of a screen so please be patient and please do try to see if your question has already been
answered on the help page. We are unable to
answer questions about hard anyone played in their match - we only get to see the results - and if your
level didn't increase as expected please make sure you've looked at the above explanation before
contacting us. If you want to go up the levels, train harder, listen to your coach and win more points.
Or just be incredibly talented!