Menu | Explaining level changesOscar McMurrugh v Ynda Jas (Mon 28 Jul 2025)Match won by Oscar McMurrugh. Result: 6-1.Starting level for Oscar McMurrugh: 425, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Ynda Jas: 851, level confidence: 63%. Ynda Jas to win as he is currently playing 100% better than Oscar McMurrugh. Oscar McMurrugh won 86% of the points. Oscar McMurrugh has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 475. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar McMurrugh actually played at a level of 905 and Ynda Jas at a level of 447. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 90% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 62% and 58% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 48% and 45% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar McMurrugh changes to +48% and Ynda Jas changes to -45%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar McMurrugh becomes +23.3% and for Ynda Jas becomes -22%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Oscar McMurrugh is +12% and for Ynda Jas is -9.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Oscar McMurrugh is limited to +10% and Ynda Jas is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Oscar McMurrugh is +23%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar McMurrugh: 79%, Ynda Jas: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar McMurrugh: 39%, Ynda Jas: 39%. A final adjustment of -5.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Oscar McMurrugh: 468, level confidence: 39%. Final level for Ynda Jas: 810, level confidence: 39%. Notes
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