Menu | Explaining level changesDave Fowler v Joe Eustace (Sun 16 Jun 2019)Match won by Joe Eustace. Result: 1-6.Starting level for Dave Fowler: 1,778, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Joe Eustace: 2,380, level confidence: 64%. Joe Eustace to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Dave Fowler. Joe Eustace won 86% of the points. Joe Eustace has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 2667. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe Eustace actually played at a level of 3,099 and Dave Fowler at a level of 1,530. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 10.4% and 10.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Eustace changes to +10.4% and Dave Fowler changes to -8.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Eustace becomes +4.6% and for Dave Fowler becomes -4.7%. Given Joe Eustace's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Joe Eustace is +2.1% and for Dave Fowler is -2.3%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Joe Eustace is +14%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Eustace: 80%, Dave Fowler: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Eustace: 65%, Dave Fowler: 70%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dave Fowler: 1,738, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Joe Eustace: 2,721, level confidence: 65%. Notes
|