Menu | Explaining level changesJulian Baggini v Jens Rohrbeck (Mon 11 Nov 2019)Match won by Jens Rohrbeck. Result: 1-6.Starting level for Julian Baggini: 1,184, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Jens Rohrbeck: 686, level confidence: 63%. Julian Baggini to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Jens Rohrbeck. Jens Rohrbeck won 86% of the points. Jens Rohrbeck has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 778. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jens Rohrbeck actually played at a level of 1,366 and Julian Baggini at a level of 674. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 76% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 58% and 58% respectively. As this is a best of 1 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 45% and 45% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jens Rohrbeck changes to +45% and Julian Baggini changes to -42%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jens Rohrbeck becomes +22.1% and for Julian Baggini becomes -19%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Jens Rohrbeck is +11% and for Julian Baggini is -8.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jens Rohrbeck is limited to +10% and Julian Baggini is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Jens Rohrbeck is +25%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jens Rohrbeck: 79%, Julian Baggini: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jens Rohrbeck: 43%, Julian Baggini: 44%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Julian Baggini: 1,126, level confidence: 44%. Final level for Jens Rohrbeck: 856, level confidence: 43%. Notes
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